April 24 nd  2002

Fuel-Cell Vehicles Hold Promise, Big Questions

Source:E Daily

But even after the Freedom CAR announcement, many questions remain about fuel-cell
vehicles, say experts here at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL).

NREL began working on alternatively powered vehicles about a decade ago, working on
hybrid vehicles even before the Clinton administration inaugurated its Partnership for a New
Generation of Vehicles (PNGV) program.

The new Freedom CAR will replace the electric/internal combustion hybrid of PNGV with a
fuel cell/battery hybrid research approach. PNGV had been targeted at developing a
five-passenger sedan capable of 80 miles per gallon (mpg). Freedom CAR will not be so
narrowly defined to a certain size vehicle, said Terry Penney, technology manager for
advanced transportation systems at NREL, given the popularity of sport utility vehicles.

Also, instead of achieving a certain mpg level, Freedom CAR will be measured by the amount
of oil that can be displaced by fuel cells, which is a better metric, Penney said.

DOE officials haven't yet designated lead labs for various areas of the Freedom CAR
program, Penney said. NREL expects to maintain a focus on a vehicle as an overall system,
he said.

"Many of the other sister labs are working on a component or another component. We have
classically focused on the entire vehicle system," he said.

Penney said NREL is also conducting research related to hydrogen, which powers fuel cells,
including energy storage. Hydrogen's energy density is less than that of gasoline, and while
a 15-gallon gasoline fuel tank provides a vehicle with a range of 300 miles, the equivalent in
hydrogen gets 100 miles, Penney said. That level was unacceptable to consumers when
electric vehicles first began to emerge, he said.

NREL is also working on research on producing hydrogen and in battery technologies.

"I must say that on almost all the projects that we have in advanced vehicles, we have an
industry counterpart that's working with us on something," Penney said. "We don't really
have any scientists just going off and doing stuff. ... If you don't produce something that ends
up as a product that gets into a car, you really haven't done anything."

Penney warns that consumers and others need to temper their expectations for fuel cell
vehicles. "I just don't see the numbers of fuel-cell vehicles increasing, like everybody else is
claiming," he said.

Many believe fuel cell vehicles will become available in 2005 or 2006, Penney said. That likely will be true, but only in quantities of hundreds- not thousands- of vehicles, he said.

The development of an available infrastructure to supply hydrogen to replenish fuel cells is
still an issue, Penney said. "When are we going to have a gas station on every corner for
hydrogen? It's not clear," he said.

NREL maintains a number of alternative fuel vehicles at the lab, but NREL staffers will still use a gasoline vehicle rather than an alternative vehicle if they need to refuel and the gasoline
station is closer, Penney said.

"Even people here at NREL who are dedicated to the technology, if it puts them out half a
mile- if they to drive half a minute farther- they won't do it," he said.

John Turner, a senior scientist at NREL who studies hydrogen, said the makings of a
hydrogen fueling infrastructure are already available.

"Just go a phone book and open it up to 'Gases, Industrial,' and there's hydrogen," he said.
"So you can buy hydrogen pretty much anywhere. Whether it's cost effective, that's a different story- or cost-competitive with gasoline."

The hurdles for fuel cells largely involve the cost of manufacturing, Turner said.

A group of engineers today can build a fuel cell that works well, but paying for the engineers
is expensive, which makes the fuel cells they make expensive, as do the materials they use,
Turner said.

The idea is to transfer manufacturing to less-skilled workers supervised by engineers and
then remove the engineers altogether, he said.

"So if you really want manufacturability, you have to develop (less expensive) materials and
the manufacturing lines to first get the PhDs off the assembly line- get the blue collars onto
the assembly line- and finally get the PhDs out of the building," he said. "When you get the
PhDs out of the building, that's when you really can come down the cost curve."

Turner said manufacturers are currently in the phase of having workers assemble fuel cells
with oversight. He estimates it is a couple of years away before reaching volume production
without direct engineer oversight.

Costs have to drop from $ 10,000 per kilowatt to $ 1,000 per kilowatt, Turner said. It is a goal of Freedom CAR to reach just $ 45 per kilowatt in 2010

Turner said Freedom CAR's goal of $ 45 per kilowatt is possible, but he is not sure it's
possible in eight years mainly because of the materials costs and questions about whether a
huge volume market will be developed for fuel cells.

"The automotive market really would be the driver to get the costs down," he said. "... A car
rolls off an assembly line somewhere in the world every two seconds. I mean, that is a
market." creasing, like everybody else is claiming," he said. 
                  
Many believe fuel cell vehicles will become available in 2005 or 2006, Penney said. That likely will be true, but only in quantities of hundreds- not thousands- of vehicles, he said. 
                 
The development of an available infrastructure to supply hydrogen to replenish fuel cells is
still an issue, Penney said. "When are we going to have a gas station on every corner for
hydrogen? It's not clear," he said. 

 NREL maintains a number of alternative fuel vehicles at the lab, but NREL staffers will still use a gasoline vehicle rather than an alternative vehicle if they need to refuel and the gasoline
station is closer, Penney said. 
                  
 "Even people here at NREL who are dedicated to the technology, if it puts them out half a
 mile- if they to drive half a minute farther- they won't do it," he said. 

 John Turner, a senior scientist at NREL who studies hydrogen, said the makings of a
hydrogen fueling infrastructure are already available.
 

"Just go a phone book and open it up to 'Gases, Industrial,' and there's
hydrogen," he said. "So you can buy hydrogen pretty much anywhere. Whether it's cost effective, that's a different story- or cost-competitive with gasoline."

The hurdles for fuel cells largely involve the cost of manufacturing, Turner said.

A group of engineers today can build a fuel cell that works well, but paying for the
engineers is expensive, which makes the fuel cells they make expensive, as do the materials
they use, Turner said.

The idea is to transfer manufacturing to less-skilled workers supervised by
engineers and then remove the engineers altogether, he said.

"So if you really want manufacturability, you have to develop (less expensive)
materials and the manufacturing lines to first get the PhDs off the assembly line- get the blue
collars onto the assembly line- and finally get the PhDs out of the building," he said. "When
you get the PhDs out of the building, that's when you really can come down the cost curve."

Turner said manufacturers are currently in the phase of having workers assemble fuel cells with oversight. He estimates it is a couple of years away before reaching volume production without direct engineer oversight.

Costs have to drop from $ 10,000 per kilowatt to $ 1,000 per kilowatt, Turner
said. It is a goal of Freedom CAR to reach just $ 45 per kilowatt in 2010

Turner said Freedom CAR's goal of $ 45 per kilowatt is possible, but he is not
sure it's possible in eight years mainly because of the materials costs and questions about
whether a huge volume market will be developed for fuel cells.

"The automotive market really would be the driver to get the costs down," he
said. "... A car rolls off an assembly line somewhere in the world every two seconds. I mean, that is a market."