The iMOVE project Investigating the viability of hydrogen fuel for heavy vehicle use, with Transport for NSW, ARRB, and Mov3ment is complete and the final report, Hydrogen Powered Heavy Vehicle Demand and Infrastructure Assessment.

Project wrap-up

The Hydrogen Powered Heavy Vehicle Demand and Infrastructure Assessment (Report) is required reading for anyone in the heavy vehicles space. Prepared as part of the iMOVE project, the Report identifies the importance of a considered approach to making any transition toward new fuels.

It provides case studies and analyses from New Zealand and Germany and includes hydrogen refuelling location analyses of the Sydney to Melbourne and Sydney to Brisbane routes.

The iMOVE project sought to support the NSW Government’s Hydrogen Strategy (Strategy), including the Hydrogen Refuelling Network Initiative (Initiative), identifying the distribution model for hydrogen and its safe operation in Australia. Noting, the Strategy has a stretch target of 10,000 heavy vehicles and 100 refuelling stations by 2030.

The project’s objectives were to investigate the demand for hydrogen for heavy vehicles in NSW. Specifically, it sought to:

Collate and analyse national and international, state-of-the-art practice in policy and planning for hydrogen transport, new and emerging technology options, and local industry readiness.
Differentiate vehicle type and task to identify market demand and scalable options that would deliver the most benefit and assist in prioritising the refuelling stations that will complement the battery-electric vehicle (BEV) network.
Identify barriers to market adoption in the current regulatory environment, including cost, ability to leverage current infrastructure and safety.
Demonstrate the hydrogen opportunity for the heavy vehicle sector, its potential economic and operational benefits as well as its direct and indirect financial costs.
Identify a pathway for the NSW Government to assist early adopters and lay the foundations for the infrastructure necessary to scale uptake.

Methodology

This project involved carrying out a literature review, consulting stakeholders, and analysing the NSW market and cost of ownership. The timescale covered was from 2022 to 2030.

Literature review

A literature review of existing policies and their implementation in other countries was carried out to understand:

types of technology available
use hydrogen as fuel for transport
efficiencies
range
cost of infrastructure
cost comparison of hydrogen fuel cells, electric batteries, and internal combustion engines.

Policies, successes, costs, and infrastructure in countries including the USA, Europe, China, Japan, and Korea were investigated.

Across this range of jurisdictions “…high efficiency, stability, low carbon emission, low cost and scale production are consistent development goals.”

These are also locations in which “… hydrogen transport is gaining momentum.”

Additionally, these countries, which are more advanced along the hydrogen road than Australia, “… have incorporated incentives and legislative requirements that decrease the risk of hydrogen development stimulating demand and supply for industry participants.”

Stakeholder consultation

The three international stakeholders consulted were from Europe and comprised a hydrogen infrastructure supplier, bus company, and a hydrogen project developer. It was found that the industry there is more advanced in its development, with some trials having been underway for 10 years.

Insights from European stakeholders include:

Diminishing returns, increasing costs of rare minerals and other constraints are hampering efforts to reach full scale and capability.
Fuel cells are less reliable than diesel engines and currently require an overhaul every five to eight years.
Hydrogen production costs remain high due to the low volume manufactured and the low demand. Issues include scale and the move from mostly grey to green hydrogen.
Fuel Cell Electric (FCE) trucks are currently not a like-for-like swap for diesel ICE trucks, and FCE trucks and buses do not have any performance improvements on diesel ICE trucks.
Infrastructure remains expensive to deploy.
The industry clusters investigated actively participated in the aggregation and efficient deployment of infrastructure.

In comparing the state of play in Europe to that in Australia:

The barriers in Europe and Australia are similar. They include high costs, inefficient supply chains, vehicle availability and performance constraints, immaturity of the hydrogen FCE technology, and consumer reluctance to change.

However, the report noted there is a genuine lack of relevant data for the Australian context especially given the relative immaturity of the market. The report concluded that all stakeholders including government would benefit from an open-book examination of case studies of early deployments of FCEV trucks into the market.

Primarily the Australian stakeholder consultations were conducted with participants, representing:

users (fleets and carriers)
truck suppliers and Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs)
energy providers (hydrogen production and refuelling)
infrastructure owners (roads and ports)
freight customers
government and academia.

Australian stakeholders were asked their opinions on topics including vehicle types and applications, costs, fuelling and infrastructure, barriers, and policies.

Two key themes, identified during consultation with key stakeholders and addressed in the Report, were costs and divergent views, specifically:

cost
Any truck using zero emission (ZE) technology or fuel must do the same job as a diesel ICE truck. Carriers should not be forced to accept a reduction in productivity, an increase in costs, or an increase in the size of their fleet to cover limitations of the technology.
Despite the emission benefits of zero emission vehicle (ZEV) technologies, fleets will always choose the cheaper option.
Some felt that green hydrogen prices may never drop low enough (even medium to long term) to make it viable.
Currently, FCE trucks typically are three to four times the price of an equivalent diesel truck.
divergent views
There was a perceptible divide between hydrogen ‘believers’ and ‘non-believers’.
Most are expecting long-haul trucks might be available from 2026–27 in initial batches, but this is more likely to be by 2030 or even 2035 for widespread adoption by operators.

Key FCE segment opportunities identified by stakeholders included:

Concrete trucks, and some kerbside rubbish compactors were flagged as early adopter segments. Some stakeholders indicated these heavy rigid applications would likely transition before long-haul articulated trucks, in contrast to the literature, overseas experience, and previous research.
Most are expecting long-haul trucks might be available from 2026–27 in initial batches, but this is more likely to be by 2030 or even 2035 for widespread adoption by operators.

Market analysis and cost of ownership

Market analysis included total cost of ownership of four identified viable use cases: concrete agitators, garbage trucks, regional haul semi-trailers, and long-haul B-double semi-trailers.

In regard to market analysis, there are three core requirements that must be satisfied for fleet operators to consider a switch to ZE trucks:

The truck must do its job, typically at the same performance as a diesel truck;
The alternative must be at or below the typical cost of operating a diesel truck; and
There must be a suitable truck available, and fuel/energy infrastructure where the truck is used

Also, there are two fundamental questions for companies looking to shift to battery – or hydrogen – powered trucks:

Is the vehicle available?
How accessible is the fuel?

Additional considerations include refuelling protocols and standards.

The report provides a high-level estimate of how many hydrogen fuel cell trucks could be on the road by 2030, along with infrastructure that would need to be in place to support them.

Cost is a strong factor in decisions that affect the composition of a heavy vehicle fleet. That includes fuel, but also the cost of vehicle purchase, maintenance, and depreciation.

Figures in relation to TCO are provided for internal combustion-powered, battery-powered, and hydrogen fuel cell-powered vehicles.

Project findings

The report concludes that electricity and hydrogen technologies could be complementary. Further decarbonisation opportunities could also come from alternative fuels, such as renewable synthetic combustion fuels (e-fuels), and to a lesser extent conventional biofuels (biodiesel). So, a balanced approach of least risk would involve supporting different technologies in applications for which they are best suited, and which maximise benefits to both the end user (fleets), industry, and the community. Key recommendations from the report are:

equal consideration to be given to all fuel technologies and support for small and medium enterprises in the production and supply of hydrogen
the setting of refuelling standards and protocols
the establishment of a centralised hydrogen authority
more and better information on viability for end users about the commercial case for moving to hydrogen FCE trucks.

Download the report

Download your copy of the final report, Hydrogen Powered Heavy Vehicle Demand and Infrastructure Assessment – Report, by clicking the button below.

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iMOVE Project Completes Study on Hydrogen Fuel Viability for Heavy Vehicles