In this context, the study considers three expansion scenarios for the system: an optimistic one, a pessimistic one (both with a low probability of occurrence) and a more considered scenario, adopted as a reference in the PDE 2034. In addition, the document includes estimates on the evolution of the National Interconnected System and economic prospects for the sector.

With this work, EPE promotes transparency in planning, reducing the lack of information about the evolution of the transmission network and Brazil's electricity matrix. The document projects that the country will receive investments of R$128.6 billion for the construction of 30,000 km of new transmission lines and 82,000 MVA in new substations by 2034.

The booklet also highlights the need to meet the growing demand of Data Centers. Due to this high demand, EPE has been carrying out planning studies considering the prospect of growth of these loads in the medium to long term.

Furthermore, the document also addresses the issue of expanding transmission to meet the significant demand for hydrogen production plants projected for the coming years. Due to the high level of renewability of the Brazilian electricity grid and the high availability of renewable sources for expansion, Brazil has been identified as a promising market for the entry of electro-intensive projects, such as data centers and the low-carbon hydrogen industry.

Ongoing projects

According to the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), Brazil has several hydrogen projects under study, which are expected to connect at specific points in the network, totaling an installed capacity that is much higher than the current peak demand in the entire Northeast region. Due to this high demand for projects related to this industry, which is heavily concentrated in the Northeast region, EPE began a prospective study on transmission expansion in 2024 that will take into account scenarios for growth in this type of load in the medium to long term. One of the main challenges of this study will be to define the amount of hydrogen load for which the transmission system will be dimensioned.

There is also a study aimed at increasing the export capacity of the Northeast region and the import capacity of the South region, aiming to provide the safe integration of an additional 10 GW of renewable generation in the Northeast region and enable the increase in the import capacity of the South region by up to 4 GW.

In addition to the results related to the expansion of the transmission system, with the presentation of the physical evolution of the network and investment projections, the PDE 2034 booklet also presents other relevant issues regarding the planning of transmission expansion, such as a description of the transmission studies highlighted in this planning cycle; information on the evolution of exchange capacities between the geoelectric regions of the SIN; projections on potential investments to be made on account of assets at the end of their regulatory life; a mapping of the number of concession contracts for transmission assets that will expire in the coming years; and general considerations on the evolution of the Transmission System Usage Tariffs (TUST).

The data presented in the PDE 2034 notebook on transmission lines contains information relating to June 2024.

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