- Hydrogen electrolyser projects in development globally total 1.2 TW, with a staggering 55.2 GW of new projects added in the last six months alone, according to Aurora’s global electrolyser database. While Europe remains a hotspot, projects show global momentum.
- 90% of projects are categorised as early stage, while approximately 130–140 GW are advanced-stage developments. The projects involving Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) amount to approximately 15 GW, about 12% of the global operational or under-construction capacity.
- European hydrogen production relies on electrolysers, set to surpass 50% of capacity by 2030 and 80% by 2040. However, the projected 35 GW installed capacity by 2030 falls 76% short of EC targets due to high costs and uncertain agreements, delaying investments.
- The cost of hydrogen production across European countries ranges from 4–20 €/kg, Aurora assesses. The Nordics and Spain emerge as offering the most cost-effective hydrogen, with baseload production in Spain mitigating intermittent cost increases by 2–3-fold.
OXFORD– In just the past six months, the global pipeline for hydrogen electrolyser projects has surged by a staggering 55.2 GW, as reported in the latest Q2 2024 European Hydrogen Market Report (HyMaR) by Aurora Energy Research, the leading provider of power market analytics worldwide. The global electrolyser database now stands at approximately 1.2 TW, marking a notable 4% increase in the last six months and demanding a substantial 5.5 PWh of electricity.
Most projects (90%) are still in early phases, according to Aurora. The total operational capacity of existing projects is nearing 2 GW (1,923 MW), showing a growth of 1,133 MW. About 130–140 GW of more advanced projects are also in the works, highlighting their substantial scale. Europe leads in project development, making up 32% of the capacity share, the report finds, followed closely by Oceania at 21% in different operational or development stages. The projects involving Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) amount to approximately 15 GW, about 12% of the global operational or under-construction capacity.
Given its large market size and advanced policy framework, especially with the 2023 update to its 2020 hydrogen strategy, Germany leads in electrolyser project development in Europe, with about 9 GW in advanced stages. Following closely are the Netherlands and the UK, making up the top three most attractive markets in Europe with similar drivers. While Europe remains a hotspot, projects are showing global momentum, Aurora assesses.
Aurora further projects a significant role for electrolysers in European hydrogen production. By 2030, electrolysers are expected to make up over 50% of the total capacity mix, growing to 80% by 2040. However, by 2030, installed electrolyser capacity is expected to reach 35 GW, falling short of targets set by the EC’s Net Zero Industry Act and REpowerEU by 76%. This shortfall is attributed to high electrolysers’ CAPEX, rising cost of capital and, and uncertainty in offtake agreements, delaying project investment decisions.
In terms of hydrogen production costs, the report identifies considerable variation across European countries, ranging from 4–20 €/kg. The Nordics and Spain stand out for offering the most cost-effective hydrogen, with Spain’s baseload production helping to offset intermittent cost increases by 2–3 times.
Dilara Caglayan, Research Lead at Aurora Energy Research, comments:
“The positive impact of clearer policy frameworks and support schemes is evident in electrolyser projects globally, with new projects as well as some of the existing ones reaching a Final Investment Decision (FID). However, further cooperation still remains a prerequisite for the realisation of national targets and the successful rollout of a future hydrogen market.”
The Q2 2024 European Hydrogen Market Report (HyMaR) is available now. Get in touch for further information.
About Aurora Energy Research
Established in 2013, Aurora Energy Research is a leading global provider of power market forecasting and analytics for critical investment and financing decisions. Headquartered in Oxford, we operate out of 14 offices worldwide covering Europe, North & South America, Asia, and Australia.
Our comprehensive services include market outlook packages for energy industry participants, advisory support, and innovative software solutions. We foster diversity with a team of over 600 experts with backgrounds in energy, finance, and consulting, offering unparalleled expertise across power, renewables, storage, hydrogen, carbon, and fossil commodities. Our mission is to ease the global energy transition through widely trusted quantitative analysis and high-quality decision support.
SOURCE: AURORA ENERGY RESEARCH
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