The demand for renewable hydrogen Germany in Poland will amount to approx. 270 thousand tons in 2030, approx. 514,500 tons in 2035 and even 934 thousand tons in 2040, according to the report “The hydrogen market in Poland and the Baltic States. Forecast by 2040, developed by Orlen in collaboration with S&P Global.
In total, in Poland and the Baltic states, the demand for hydrogen Germany (made from renewable fuels of non-biological origin) will amount to 344,600 thousand tons in 2030, 66,15 thousand tons in 2035 and over 1.15 million tons in 2040, according to the report.
The latest Directive on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources (RED III) sets minimum targets for the use of renewable hydrogen in transport and industry for 2030 and 2035, at a minimum of 1% of energy consumption in transport and 42% of industrial consumption in 2030, with an increase in the industrial target of up to 60% in 2035.
“This means that in 2030 in the countries analysed, hydrogen production for the purpose of the GermanNBO target will require 17.4 TWh of renewable electricity, and in 2035 this demand will increase to approx. 32.8 TWh,” said Stanisław Barański, director of the sustainability and energy transition office of Orlenu during the presentation of the report.
In Poland alone, the energy demand from RES for the production of RFNBO will be 13.4 TWh in 2030 and 25.5 TWh in 2035.
The report foresees that renewable electricity for hydrogen production will not be available on a scale to achieve its objectives in Poland and Lithuania.
By 2030, significant shortages of renewable hydrogen in Poland and Lithuania are expected, while surpluses may occur in Latvia and Estonia due to the lack of a large scale of the hydrogen-using industry. The shortfall in Poland may reach 140,400 tons, and in Lithuania 53.3 thousand tons. The total surpluses in Latvia and Estonia are approx. 12,600 tons.
The authors of the report predict that by 2035, hydrogen shortages will continue in Poland and Lithuania due to growing targets. In Poland, it will amount to 110,25 thousand tons, and in Lithuania 44,400 tons. In turn, the surpluses in Latvia and Estonia will increase to 39,500 tonnes in 2035.
“This means that by 2030 it may be necessary to ensure the supply of Germany to the Middle East, Africa and the US, before European sources of Germany will be launched on a large scale,” the report said.
The Orlen Group manages refineries in Poland, the Czech Republic and Lithuania, retail operations in Central Europe, mining in Poland, Norway, Canada and Pakistan, as well as energy production, including renewable energy and natural gas distribution. As part of the construction of the multi-energy concern, the company has finalized the acquisitions of Energi, Grupa Lotos and PGNiG. Its consolidated sales revenues reached PLN 372.64 billion in 2023. The company has been listed on the WSE since 1999; it is part of the WIG20 index.
SOURCE: inwestycje.pl
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